{"id":41870,"date":"2021-12-20T12:28:39","date_gmt":"2021-12-20T17:28:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nationalcenter.org\/?p=41870"},"modified":"2021-12-27T23:24:44","modified_gmt":"2021-12-28T04:24:44","slug":"aukus-promises-an-effective-check-on-china-in-the-south-pacific","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nationalcenter.org\/ncppr\/2021\/12\/20\/aukus-promises-an-effective-check-on-china-in-the-south-pacific\/","title":{"rendered":"AUKUS Promises an Effective Check on China in the South Pacific"},"content":{"rendered":"

Allowing Australia to purchase Los Angeles-class nuclear submarines would provide an immediate, unseen, and unpredictable counter to any Chinese naval advance.<\/strong><\/h4>\n
\"Horace<\/a>

Horace Cooper<\/p><\/div>\n

Speaking in Washington, D.C. in late October, former Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott\u00a0floated the idea of\u00a0acquiring \u202fLos Angeles-class nuclear submarines from the U.S.\u00a0At the time, Abbott \u202fquipped \u202fthat he would have \u202fasked \u202fthe British the same question if he were\u202f speaking in London\u202f instead.<\/p>\n

Despite \u202fthe \u202fnonchalant \u202fway that the \u202fsuggestion of leasing or purchasing American fast attack nuclear submarines\u202f came about, the \u202fpossibility of this transaction has the potential to drastically change dynamics in the South Pacific and minimize the likelihood that American soldiers would have to risk their lives in the region.<\/p>\n

Construction of the first\u202f Los Angeles-class hull began in 1972, and the new class became fully operational in 1976. \u202fDeveloped by \u202fGeneral Dynamics Electric Boat and constructed by Newport News Shipbuilding, these\u00a0state-of-the-art\u00a0boats had one clear goal in design: \u202fbe fast enough to intercept and sink any Soviet submarine threat.<\/p>\n

With the ability to \u202fgo two decades without refueling, the\u00a0only concern left in extended operations is ensuring the \u202fcrew stays fed.<\/p>\n

Australia Acquiring Nuclear Subs\u00a0<\/strong><\/h2>\n

The agreement that spurred Australia\u2019s submarine acquisition, known as \u202fAUKUS<\/a>, is a trilateral security pact Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States entered into on September 15, \u202f2021. When the agreement was announced, U.S. officials described it as a way to line up common interests in the Indo-Pacific.<\/p>\n

The Biden administration has appointed<\/a>\u00a0James Miller \u2013 a former top Obama Pentagon official \u2013 to spearhead the American effort to help Australia develop nuclear-powered submarines and broaden military cooperation.<\/p>\n

Under the agreement, the countries\u00a0will\u00a0exchange\u00a0information and technological development \u202fin the fields of nuclear propulsion, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and long-range missile defense, \u202famong other things .\u202fThese collaborative developments have the goal of maintaining peace and stability in the \u202fIndo-Pacific \u202fregion; an area that has seen increased\u00a0Chinese aggression<\/a>.<\/p>\n

AUKUS effectively canceled Australia\u2019s previous $90 billion submarine contract with the French. Calling it a \u201cstab in the back,<\/a>\u201d\u00a0the\u00a0French government\u00a0publicly announced\u00a0that they had received only a few\u00a0hours\u2019 notice\u00a0of the reversal.<\/p>\n

The situation with the French has been mostly mended \u202fby\u00a0a 30-minute phone call\u00a0between U.S.\u00a0President Joe Biden\u00a0and\u00a0French President Emmanuel Macron but not before Paris\u00a0recalled ambassadors from Washington and Canberra.<\/p>\n

Taiwan<\/strong><\/h2>\n

While the U.S. won\u2019t say it publicly, it is China\u2019s aggression that is the genesis of this agreement.\u00a0Nearly two years after the Western press dropped the Hong Kong issue, China has begun ramping up pressure against Taiwan<\/a>. Providing submarines directly or in the form of designs to the Australians would be a clear message to Beijing that America stands with \u202fTaiwan \u2014 that would indeed be a historic change.<\/p>\n

The United States has historically treated Taiwan as a de facto independent state through the policy of\u202f\u201cstrategic \u202fambiguity.\u201d<\/a> This policy of essentially \u201cnot picking a side\u201d has always challenged Beijing\u2019s war planners in\u202f predicting America\u2019s stance \u202fduring any \u202fplan of an invasion \u202fof Taiwan.<\/p>\n

The United States has never\u00a0committed to\u00a0providing a police \u202fforce \u202falong the Taiwan \u202fStrait \u2013 a\u202fn arrow of 110 miles of ocean dividing Taiwan and mainland China \u2013 but \u202fit\u00a0is expressly interested in ensuring that commerce and free trade is not disrupted.<\/p>\n

Until recently, \u202fWestern analysts\u00a0have \u202fassumed that China could not capture \u202fTaiwan in a quick\u202f maneuver. Recent developments in China\u2019s offensive missile technology<\/a> have challenged this \u202fconclusion and \u202ffurther raises questions about the rationale of maintaining America\u2019s policy of \u201cstrategic ambiguity.\u201d<\/p>\n

In other words, must the U.S. explicitly state its plan in the event of a Taiwan invasion \u2013 and what should that plan be?<\/p>\n

Countering China<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Australia\u2019s\u00a0implementation\u00a0of this platform in the \u202fIndo-Pacific \u202fregion would provide an immediate, unseen, and unpredictable\u202f counter to \u202fany \u202fChinese \u202fnaval advance.<\/p>\n

The threat to China\u2019s \u202fLiaoning-class carriers, consisting of refurbished models and clones of the Soviet\u202f Kuznetsov-class\u202f carriers,\u202f would be tremendous and could force intended air attacks to launch from mainland China. That would give Taiwan\u2019s formidable air defense over 60 miles to track, trace, and destroy any incoming missile threats.<\/p>\n

The effect of these multi-faceted changes will likely force China\u2019s war planners to reconsider what advantage, if any, can be maintained with their recent technological advances. For America, it means not having to formally commit operational support \u2013 also known as sending our boys in harm\u2019s way \u2013 and putting off modifying its policy of strategic ambiguity.<\/p>\n

Whether AUKUS leads\u00a0to providing Australia with\u00a0completed\u00a0submarines directly or\u00a0just with\u00a0designs\u00a0has\u00a0yet to be answered.\u00a0While\u00a0China will clearly see through these\u00a0back door deals to\u00a0exchange\u00a0information and material,\u00a0without America directly \u202finvolved \u202fin the observable actions at sea there is little\u202f they can do beyond throwing diplomatic temper tantrums.<\/p>\n

Together with the UK and Australia, AUKUS has the potential \u202fto allow \u202fthree of the\u00a0Five Eyes\u00a0partners (intelligence alliance comprising Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK, and the U.S.) to \u202fensure stability in the \u202fIndo-Pacific \u202ftheater \u202ftogether.<\/p>\n

Australia will take the helm operationally \u202fas the leading democracy in the region.\u00a0Prime Minister Scott Morrison has clearly committed himself to \u202fthe American ideal of carrying a big stick\u202f within the \u201cchanged security environment\u201d that exists due to China\u2019s growing antagonism. This compact is a great opportunity to provide Australia with those resources.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Horace Cooper<\/a> is a legal fellow at the National Center for Public Policy Research and co-chairman of the Project 21 black leadership network. This was first published by The Defense Post<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n

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New Visions Commentaries reflect the views of their author, and not necessarily those of Project 21, other Project 21 members, or the National Center for Public Policy Research, its board or staff.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Allowing Australia to purchase Los Angeles-class nuclear submarines would provide an immediate, unseen, and unpredictable counter to any Chinese naval advance. Speaking in Washington, D.C. in late October, former Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott\u00a0floated the idea of\u00a0acquiring \u202fLos Angeles-class nuclear submarines from the U.S.\u00a0At the…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":37615,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[665,34,36,60],"tags":[84],"yoast_head":"\nAUKUS Promises an Effective Check on China in the South Pacific - The National Center<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/nationalcenter.org\/ncppr\/2021\/12\/20\/aukus-promises-an-effective-check-on-china-in-the-south-pacific\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Horace Cooper\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/nationalcenter.org\/ncppr\/2021\/12\/20\/aukus-promises-an-effective-check-on-china-in-the-south-pacific\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/nationalcenter.org\/ncppr\/2021\/12\/20\/aukus-promises-an-effective-check-on-china-in-the-south-pacific\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Horace Cooper\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/nationalcenter.org\/#\/schema\/person\/ff68e71dec5bcbc043a6d398a71fbf23\"},\"headline\":\"AUKUS Promises an Effective Check on China in the South Pacific\",\"datePublished\":\"2021-12-20T17:28:39+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2021-12-28T04:24:44+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/nationalcenter.org\/ncppr\/2021\/12\/20\/aukus-promises-an-effective-check-on-china-in-the-south-pacific\/\"},\"wordCount\":986,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/nationalcenter.org\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/nationalcenter.org\/ncppr\/2021\/12\/20\/aukus-promises-an-effective-check-on-china-in-the-south-pacific\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/nationalcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/china-covid-spread-social.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Project 21 Commentary\"],\"articleSection\":[\"China\",\"National Security\/UN\",\"Project 21\",\"Project 21 Commentary\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/nationalcenter.org\/ncppr\/2021\/12\/20\/aukus-promises-an-effective-check-on-china-in-the-south-pacific\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/nationalcenter.org\/ncppr\/2021\/12\/20\/aukus-promises-an-effective-check-on-china-in-the-south-pacific\/\",\"name\":\"AUKUS Promises an Effective Check on China in the South Pacific - The National Center\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/nationalcenter.org\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/nationalcenter.org\/ncppr\/2021\/12\/20\/aukus-promises-an-effective-check-on-china-in-the-south-pacific\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/nationalcenter.org\/ncppr\/2021\/12\/20\/aukus-promises-an-effective-check-on-china-in-the-south-pacific\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/nationalcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/china-covid-spread-social.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2021-12-20T17:28:39+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2021-12-28T04:24:44+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/nationalcenter.org\/ncppr\/2021\/12\/20\/aukus-promises-an-effective-check-on-china-in-the-south-pacific\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/nationalcenter.org\/ncppr\/2021\/12\/20\/aukus-promises-an-effective-check-on-china-in-the-south-pacific\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/nationalcenter.org\/ncppr\/2021\/12\/20\/aukus-promises-an-effective-check-on-china-in-the-south-pacific\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/nationalcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/china-covid-spread-social.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/nationalcenter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/china-covid-spread-social.jpg\",\"width\":1200,\"height\":635,\"caption\":\"China Alert - Corona Virus Spreads In Asia - elements of this image furnished by NASA - 3d Rendering 3d rendering, Asia. 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